As American stealth bombers swept towards their targets in Iran, there was one question that no one in the White House situation room would have asked: What does Britain think of this?
Donald Trump had no need to care about Britain’s opinion for the simple reason that Sir Keir Starmer chose to stay out of the operation and make Britain irrelevant.
No B-2 bombers took off from Diego Garcia; no request came from Washington for Britain’s permission to use the Anglo-American base on the island. Nor did the Americans ask for any other form of British military support.
Many of our diplomats will be heaving sighs of relief. We are in the clear, they will tell themselves. If America and Israel turn out to have failed and Iran repairs its nuclear plants in a few months before dashing to make a bomb – an unlikely but possible outcome – then Britain will be able to congratulate itself on its prescience. If the whole enterprise is a tragic error, then it pays to be irrelevant.
But there is a problem: Sir Keir is not against the US operation; on the contrary he implied on Sunday that it was necessary. “Iran can never be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon and the US has taken action to alleviate that threat,” he said.
Sir Keir disclosed that Britain was “given due notice” of the American strike and he described Iran’s nuclear ambitions as the “greatest threat”.
The fact that he repeated the usual platitudes about “concern” and “de-escalation” will not stop many countries from concluding that Britain supports the American action and deserves all the opprobrium that goes with it. You can be sure that Russia, China and Iran itself will draw this conclusion.
The danger is that Sir Keir has chosen the worst of all worlds: by not joining the action he has made Britain irrelevant; by not opposing it he will share the risk anyway.
The lesson should be carved in marble: the middle way is often the most damaging option. And if Britain is not prepared to use force alongside allies, then it would be better for our diplomats not to involve themselves in vital security issues in the Middle East. They will only be irrelevant when it matters most.
Another conclusion is just as painful. Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, has delivered a masterclass in how to handle Mr Trump. Against his own instincts and the wishes of his most ardent supporters, the president has just embroiled America in a war in the Middle East.
The heaviest bunker-busting bombs in the world, which only the US Air Force can deliver, have smashed their way into Iran’s uranium enrichment plant buried in a mountain at Fordow. At a stroke, a vital threat to the state of Israel has received the heaviest non-nuclear blow that America can deliver.
Mr Netanyahu achieved this by following a simple insight: Mr Trump helps allies who help themselves. Israel started this campaign without waiting for America, demonstrating its willingness to bear the costs and risks of military action. Once he saw how Israel was fully prepared to look after itself, Mr Trump decided to intervene with decisive effect.
On the eve of this week’s Nato summit, Britain and every European ally should take note. The more they build up their own military capabilities and demonstrate their independent willingness to use them, the greater the chance of keeping Mr Trump in the Atlantic Alliance.
In all of this, no one has miscalculated more egregiously than Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran. He did not believe that Mr Netanyahu would strike, and Israel killed Iran’s entire high command with one opening blow.
Khamenei did not think America would act either, judging by the obduracy of Iran’s negotiating position at last-ditch talks in Geneva on Friday. He was catastrophically wrong on both counts.
Now the ayatollah’s entire military strategy and his nuclear programme lies in ruins around him. The long reign of this blinkered and inept 86-year-old is effectively over.
Sir Keir can at least take comfort that he did not blunder on the same scale.
